The real estate market in Tallahassee has bottomed again, hitting a level below our August 2009 "Floor" that we had hoped was left far behind. Though plenty of anecdotal evidence has been around for months, the newly released October Housing Report has everything graphically presented to show that 2010 is now the worst year on record in real estate in Tallahassee, Florida.
Yesterday's supply and demand graph for real estate in Tallahassee showed that our supply levels are again growing, and that we have many years worth of supply to work through. But today's report also shows the slowing of sales.
Long Term Home Sales Trend In Tallahassee
When we do a long term trend analysis on home sales in Tallahassee, we immediately see that our ten year trend is falling. Unfortunately, so too is our five and one-year trends. For "chartists," we are looking for a crossover to occur, when the short-term trend (red line) crosses over the mid-year trend (green line). This might indicate some real steam in the real estate market recovery. Right now, our real estate graph shows us moving away from such a recovery.
Single Family Home Sales
This next graph creates a simple perspective to show the relative demise of the housing market. Our 60+% drop from the top of the market is not nearly as painful as the fact that we are selling less real estate in Tallahassee now than we were in the early 1990s. Considering the population growth in Leon County since that time, unit sales are significantly lower.
Year Over Year Home Sales Drop 27% In September
Our final graph today shows that year over year sales dropped for the third straight month (not coincidentally inline with the end of the Homebuyer Tax Credit). The 27% drop "gave back" all of the gains that 2010 had shown over 2009.
Real Estate In Tallahassee, Florida
I have said it often, and I will reiterate that I am long-term bullish on the Tallahassee real estate market. But the next 3 to 5 years are going to be tough. We have way too much supply and values will continue to drop until we liquidate the glut of homes for sale in Tallahassee. And there are not enough buyers in the market for that to happen in the next few years, it will take some time.
If you want to sell a home, forget it for 7 to 10 years. If you have to sell a home, make sure you take advantage of all of the tools that the internet offers for today's home seller. Demand a Progressive Marketing Plan that will target key homebuyer groups and broadly expose your home to the entire world.
Joe Manausa, MBA is a 26 year veteran of real estate brokerage in Tallahassee, Florida and has owned and managed his own company since 1992. He is a daily blogger with content that focuses on real estate analytics and providing his clients with a tactical advantage in today's challenging market.