# Killearn Lakes 3 Home Values Forecast

Posted by Joe Manausa on Tuesday, April 20th, 2010 at 12:25pm.

Killearn Lakes Unit 3 home values have dropped nearly 20% since the peak of the market in 2007 and appear to have stabilized over the past six months.

Home values in Killearn Lakes Unit 3 have dropped nearly 20% since the peak of the market in 2007 and appear to have stabilized over the past six months. As far as Tallahassee neighborhoods go, Killearn Lakes Unit 3 seems to be doing relatively well.

While there is still plenty of competition for the homes for sale in Killearn Lakes Plantation, it appears this desirable northeast Tallahassee neighborhood is holding its own. But homeowners need to be aware of current market conditions that suggest we will see prices drop another 10% or more in the coming years.

If you missed our blog post on using regression toward the mean to forecast future home value movements, you might want to check it out. We used this mathematical modeling technique to forecast home value movements in Killearn Lakes Plantation Unit 3 and determined that prices might be poised for another 10% fall.

### Average Home Price In Killearn Lakes Unit 3

Average home prices appear to be about 3 years ahead of the mean (as established over the previous 20 years), and it is reasonable to assume homeowners will be feeling pricing pressure for this reason as well as the fact that there is more supply of homes for sale in Killearn Lakes Plantation than there are buyers for them.

## Recent Killearn Lakes Unit 3 Home Sales

Joe Manausa, MBA is a 26 year veteran of real estate brokerage in Tallahassee, Florida and has owned and managed his own company since 1992. He is a daily blogger with content that focuses on real estate analytics and providing his clients with a tactical advantage in today's challenging market.

#### 1 Response to "Killearn Lakes 3 Home Values Forecast"

Steven R. wrote: Joe,

I don’t think prices will drop 10%, but I can’t tell you exactly what it will do because you have the data. Rather than using regression toward the mean, you should plot the price of homes vs. moving averages. Select a moving average such that when the price crosses the moving average to the downside price moves down, and when price crosses the moving average line to the upside, price moves up. You may see that price has moved above a “well fitted” moving average line, indicating that prices should continue to rise. Google “moving average crossovers” as it relates to stock picking for some real insight.

I don’t think the regression line applies because your y-axis is linear. In effect, because the value of the dollar shrinks geometrically, a trend line should be curved for the way you’ve got it set up. Plot it again using a logarithmic y-axis for best results.

Steven R.

Posted on Tuesday, April 20th, 2010 at 4:09pm.