Killearn Lakes 3 Home Sales Report

Posted by Joe Manausa on Monday, December 6th, 2010 at 11:23am.

Tracking home sales in Killearn Lakes 3 shows what has occurred, and one can really get a feel for the near term future when looking at a simplified chart

Killearn Lakes 3 home sales are closing at rates far lower than they were during the height of the Tallahassee housing market, and it appears that this popular Northeast Tallahassee neighborhood has got more to give back to the market. The real estate graph below shows declining short, medium and long term trends in KLP3 home values.

Killearn Lakes Unit 3 Home Sales Report Graph Image Picture

In the graph above, the gold points show the average value of Killearn Lakes 3 homes sold each month, while the colored lines show the average values over time. The short term trend is dropping rapidly (down over 30% since the peak of the market), while the medium term trend has fallen nearly 10% over the past year. Here are a few points we can glean from the real estate graph above:

When we study the home appreciation trends in Killearn Lakes Unit 3, I believe we are seeing solid proof that home values will continue to depreciate for some time. The short term trend crossed-over the long-term trend at the beginning of 2009, while the medium-term trend has yet to cross over the long-term trend. What does this mean?

All trends were buoyed by the Homebuyer Tax Credit in 2009 (see the shaded portion highlighted in the graph above). Since the end of this tax stimulus, values have resumed falling and have even caught back up to their previous rate of decline.

Real Estate Supply And Demand Determine Value

The tracking of home sales in Killearn Lakes 3 gives us a great view of what has occurred, and one can really get a feel for the near term future when looking at a simplified chart. Chartists would tell you to watch for cross-overs ... meaning when a short term trend "crosses over" a longer term trend, it is a sign of market direction.

The next cross-over that we will likely see is the 5 year trend (green line) crossing over the 10 year trend (blue line). How do we suspect this future move? The key is real estate supply and demand.

Leon County Home Inventory Report

The table above shows that homes in Northeast Tallahassee valued between $200K and $300K have roughly ten months of supply, far more than a Download Free Tallahassee Real Estate Reportmarket at equilibrium requires. Additionally, the higher price ranges will add to this supply as prices are lowered to generate home sales for Killearn Lakes 3 homeowners who absolutely must sell their homes.

Just a reminder, each month we provide a Tallahassee real estate supply and demand report, available for free download at the Tallahassee Real Estate Market Report site. You can download the report from the right sidebar of that site, or you can download the December 2010 report by clicking on the image to the right.

This report shows the entire Tallahassee real estate market, broken down by price range and area, and should help you determine the competition level for your home.

Recent Arms Length Killearn Lakes 3 Home Sales

Address Price Size PPSFT Age Sale Date
9329 BUCK HAVEN TRL 175,000 1682 $104 1991 10/26/2010
1761 COPPERFIELD CIR 106,500 1276 $83 1988 9/30/2010
1508 COPPERFIELD CIR 250,000 2283 $110 1996 8/16/2010
1601 CHADWICK WAY 215,000 1878 $114 1990 6/14/2010
9541 BUCK HAVEN TRL 170,000 1466 $116 1990 6/4/2010
9368 BUCK HAVEN TRL 175,000 1720 $102 1990 5/21/2010
1561 COPPERFIELD CIR 222,500 2043 $109 1991 5/7/2010
11065 WILDLIFE TRL 185,000 1588 $116 1995 3/26/2010
9300 BUCK HAVEN TRL $245,000 1,954 $125 1990 1/4/2010
1632 CHADWICK WAY $260,000 1,954 $133 1992 12/30/2009
1517 COPPERFIELD CIR $191,000 1,588 $120 1990 11/20/2009
1533 COPPERFIELD CIR $185,000 1,478 $125 1989 10/30/2009
1564 COPPERFIELD CIR $225,500 1,848 $122 1990 10/30/2009
12037 CEDAR BLUFF TRL $277,000 2,074 $134 1992 10/29/2009
9904 TURTLE DOVE $227,000 2,059 $110 1990 10/24/2009
9409 BUCK HAVEN TRL $200,000 1,868 $107 1994 10/13/2009
11104 WILDLIFE TRL $300,000 3,343 $90 1990 10/8/2009
11100 WILDLIFE TRL $207,500 1,766 $117 1990 9/30/2009
12018 CEDAR BLUFF TRL $294,000 2,216 $133 2000 8/28/2009
1524 COPPERFIELD CIR $275,000 2,319 $119 1990 8/28/2009
11062 WILDLIFE TRL $238,000 2,139 $111 1991 7/31/2009
9912 BEAVER RIDGE TRL $293,000 1,902 $154 1990 7/15/2009
9912 BEAVER RIDGE TRL $293,000 1,902 $154 1990 7/15/2009
11116 WILDLIFE TRL $235,000 2,037 $115 1991 7/10/2009
1813 LOG RIDGE TRL $195,000 1,561 $125 1996 6/29/2009
9908 TURTLE DOVE $180,000 1,344 $134 1989 6/19/2009
1620 CHADWICK WAY $250,000 1,891 $132 1993 6/10/2009
9912 TURTLE DOVE $235,000 2,177 $108 1989 6/1/2009
1599 COPPERFIELD CIR $182,900 1,547 $118 1993 5/6/2009
11095 WILDLIFE TRL $230,000 2,302 $100 1990 5/5/2009
1662 COPPERFIELD CIR $199,900 1,601 $125 1989 4/29/2009
9944 BEAVER RIDGE TRL $226,600 1,531 $148 1990 4/13/2009
1525 CHADWICK WAY $238,000 1,958 $122 1991 3/31/2009
1625 CHERRY HILL LN $185,000 2,312 $80 1992 3/18/2009
1718 COPPERFIELD CIR $262,000 1,958 $134 1992 1/15/2009
1644 COPPERFIELD CIR $238,500 2,052 $116 1995 1/6/2009
1616 CHERRY HILL LN $175,500 1,805 $97 1992 12/1/2008
9418 BUCK HAVEN TRL $289,900 2,150 $135 1997 10/24/2008
1838 LOG RIDGE TRL $245,500 1,876 $131 1990 9/25/2008
1837 LOG RIDGE TRL $180,000 1,545 $117 1997 9/23/2008
1529 COPPERFIELD CIR $248,000 1,711 $145 1994 9/12/2008
1603 COPPERFIELD CIR $257,500 1,908 $135 1995 8/29/2008
1616 COPPERFIELD CIR $221,200 1,606 $138 1990 8/29/2008
1808 BITTER ROOT TRL $240,000 1,762 $136 1990 8/5/2008
1584 CHADWICK WAY $231,000 1,685 $137 1995 7/25/2008
1878 LOG RIDGE TRL $275,000 2,147 $128 1989 7/11/2008
1639 CHADWICK WAY $312,500 2,795 $112 1991 6/27/2008
12038 CEDAR BLUFF TRL $213,000 1,599 $133 1991 5/23/2008
9336 BUCK HAVEN TRL $305,000 1,908 $160 1993 5/1/2008
9821 THUNDER HILL TRL $250,000 1,754 $143 1990 4/30/2008
1874 LOG RIDGE TRL $275,000 1,926 $143 1990 4/15/2008
1545 COPPERFIELD CIR $285,000 1,830 $156 1991 3/28/2008
1620 CHADWICK WAY $277,800 1,867 $149 1993 3/21/2008
1749 COPPERFIELD CIR $273,000 1,974 $138 1992 3/14/2008
11025 WILDLIFE TRL $315,800 2,209 $143 2006 1/4/2008
1870 LOG RIDGE TRL $260,000 1,931 $135 1989 12/21/2007
1557 COPPERFIELD CIR $240,000 1,794 $134 1988 10/31/2007
9425 BUCK HAVEN TRL $243,000 1,617 $150 1994 10/29/2007
12009 OTTER CREEK TRL $270,000 2,001 $135 1992 10/4/2007
1706 COPPERFIELD CIR $300,000 2,284 $131 1991 10/1/2007
9833 THUNDER HILL TRL $259,000 2,229 $116 1992 9/27/2007
1603 COPPERFIELD CIR $271,700 1,908 $142 1995 8/1/2007
1641 COPPERFIELD CIR $305,000 2,065 $148 1993 8/1/2007
13004 GOPHER WOOD TRL $332,000 2,090 $159 1992 7/31/2007
1587 COPPERFIELD CIR $340,500 2,513 $135 1990 7/31/2007
11029 WILDLIFE TRL $251,000 1,806 $139 1997 7/27/2007
1604 CHERRY HILL LN $270,000 2,100 $129 1992 7/26/2007
1560 COPPERFIELD CIR $307,500 2,220 $139 1991 6/20/2007
1879 LOG RIDGE TRL $200,000 1,552 $129 1988 6/15/2007
9356 BUCK HAVEN TRL $282,900 1,851 $153 1993 6/15/2007
12024 OTTER CREEK TRL $229,900 1,685 $136 1995 6/8/2007
2009 CASTLE CROWN LN $255,000 1,917 $133 1991 5/31/2007
9484 BUCK HAVEN TRL $249,900 1,689 $148 1990 5/23/2007
1543 BREAMSTONE RDG $275,000 2,063 $133 1992 5/18/2007
9521 BUCK HAVEN TRL $350,000 2,322 $151 1991 5/18/2007
9464 BUCK HAVEN TRL $290,000 1,974 $147 2000 5/14/2007
9393 BUCK HAVEN TRL $254,000 2,139 $119 1994 4/27/2007
1636 COPPERFIELD CIR $315,000 1,476 $213 1992 3/30/2007
9457 BUCK HAVEN TRL $263,500 2,004 $131 1991 3/27/2007
1764 COPPERFIELD CIR $257,500 1,896 $136 1990 3/19/2007
9551 BUCK HAVEN TRL $248,000 1,770 $140 1990 3/19/2007
12065 CEDAR BLUFF TRL $325,000 2,720 $119 1990 3/15/2007
1527 BREAMSTONE RDG $230,000 1,635 $141 1991 2/6/2007
9552 BUCK HAVEN TRL $206,000 1,397 $147 1989 1/22/2007
1857 LOG RIDGE TRL $268,000 1,984 $135 1993 1/11/2007

 

Joe Manausa, MBA is a 26 year veteran of real estate brokerage in Tallahassee, Florida and has owned and managed his own company since 1992. He is a daily blogger with content that focuses on real estate analytics and providing his clients with a tactical advantage in today's challenging market.

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