The Waiting Is Over - Is The Turn Here?

Posted by Joe Manausa on Tuesday, August 26th, 2008 at 6:30am.

As any of our long-term readers know, we update our Tallahassee Market Bulletin page about twice per week, showing the inventory movement in the Tallahassee real estate market. We have been looking closely at the 180 day trend on inventory flows to hopefully see it drop below the "zero" line and thus show that inventory is being reduced in Tallahassee. Well take a look at this...

Housing Inventory In Tallahassee (180 Day Trend)

All of our trend lines indicate a reduction of inventory. As we have discussed here in the past, WE WILL NOT SEE THE MARKET TURN until we see inventory being reduced. While this graph is a great sign, we have a long way to go. What we really are seeking is the one-year trend of inventory reduction. Unfortunately, we only began measuring this data this year and it will take many more months to be able to confirm or refute a one year trend of inventory reduction.

July Real Estate Market Report Is Posted

Every month, we provide a detailed look at the happenings in the Tallahassee real estate market. The July report has been posted and can be viewed on the Tallahassee Real Estate Reports page on our web site. I encourage you to take some time to really understand the information provided. As always, there is an instructional video that will decipher each graph as well.

This month, we have added a report for our readers who are interested in the markets that surround Tallahassee, Florida. This report shows the average price of homes in Leon County, Gadsden County, Wakulla County and Jefferson County.

We welcome your feedback below and would love to hear from you. Please take the time to fill out a "comment" and haze us, praise us, or just make a recommendation of what you would like to see in the future.


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Joe Manausa is a real estate investor and the Broker and Co-Owner of Joe Manausa Real Estate. He can be reached via e-mail through the Tallahassee Real Estate Website or catch his latest writings on the Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog , or by calling (850) 386-2001.
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Joe Manausa, MBA is a 26 year veteran of real estate brokerage in Tallahassee, Florida and has owned and managed his own company since 1992. He is a daily blogger with content that focuses on real estate analytics and providing his clients with a tactical advantage in today's challenging market.

4 Responses to "The Waiting Is Over - Is The Turn Here?"

real estate bahamas wrote: I think I need that instructional video because it is really difficult for me to understand this information.

Posted on Tuesday, August 26th, 2008 at 3:08pm.

Joe Manausa wrote: That's a pretty quick leap your making there "your right move" and of course I hope your right.

Posted on Tuesday, August 26th, 2008 at 5:20pm.

John Morris wrote: “That’s interesting because US Home Sales up-turn by 3.1% in July”

That statistic is completely irrelevant.

While it is true sales were up 3.1% between June 2008 and July 2008, that statistic completely ignores seasonality. Real estate sales *always* increase between June and July nationally. That’s just the seasonal nature of real estate. Would you also conclude that the toy market is doing well just because toy sales increase between November and December?

A much more representative statistic is to compare July 2007 sales to July 2008 sales. Using that comparison, sales were *DOWN* 13.2%. In fact, the July homes sales in 2008 was the lowest in a decade:

To imply that that national housing picture is improving based on an increase between June and July is disingenuous at best. It certainly doesn’t tell the truth about the national market.

Posted on Wednesday, August 27th, 2008 at 4:55pm.

Joe Manausa wrote: I agree with you John. I just checked my numbers going back to 1996 and this July was the worst by far. It is clear that the discretionary buyers have left the market and we will have to see continued reduction in the inventory to bring them back into the market.

Posted on Wednesday, August 27th, 2008 at 6:29pm.

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