Oh how I've longed to write this article. We have been tracking the daily movements in the Tallahassee real estate market for well over 2 years now, and reporting our findings at The Market Bulletin twice per week since March of 2008. Early on, we discovered that we could track the trend of daily buyer activity (365 days worth of homes sold in Tallahassee) in order to be able to see when the direction of the market changed.
Tallahassee Sees Number Of Home Sales Rising
The following real estate graph is the unofficial tracking of daily buyer activity in Tallahassee. It is created using information from the Tallahassee Board of REALTORS® Multiple Listing Service (Tallahassee MLS) and looks at all the non-duplicate sales over the past 365 days, and recorded each day.
The "official" report that we will use to actually "call" the bottom of the housing market in Tallahassee will come out in another ten days. While the information above is timely and accurate, it only measures the home sales in Tallahassee that were recorded in the Tallahassee MLS, while our much more comprehensive report will include all sales in the Tallahassee real estate market.
You can monitor market activity at any time by visiting The Market Bulletin. I keep this site as a tab on my short-cuts bar in my web browser, because it is the most timely information that can be viewed on housing in Tallahassee.
Is Housing Market Bottom Call Premature?
It is obviously premature to call the bottom of the market, as we only have a 10 day up-trend. If this ends up being the true real estate market bottom in Tallahassee, you can record August 23rd, 2009 as the day the market turned! I really suspect that we are closing in on the bottom if we have not hit it already. My earlier predictions were for this to occur in November, but I'll certainly take an earlier result if we can find it.
Readers need to also remember that should this actually be accurate, we still have a long way to go. This doesn't mean that the Tallahassee housing market is back to normal or even that it is fixed, it only means that the number of home sales in Tallahassee is no longer declining.
Again, if this were to be accurate, we can still expect declining home prices as the glut of homes for sale still needs to be reduced significantly. The next part of the cycle requires the market to seek equilibrium in the supply and demand dynamic and that means inventories must be reduced.
Tallahassee Real Estate Blog Readers Call Market Bottom
I'm curious what others think about these results. Do you think it is a false bottom and we are going to see more declines? Do you think this is it, nothing but better times ahead? I would love to see some discussion here as it might give us a healthy glimpse at "consumer confidence," even if it is only anecdotal to our blog community.
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Joe Manausa, MBA is a 26 year veteran of real estate brokerage in Tallahassee, Florida and has owned and managed his own company since 1992. He is a daily blogger with content that focuses on real estate analytics and providing his clients with a tactical advantage in today's challenging market.