Fishkind Real Estate Forecast 2009 - Will He Be Closer This Year?

Posted by Joe Manausa on Tuesday, January 13th, 2009 at 11:15am.

hank-fishkind-tallahassee-real-estate-reportEvery year at this time, the Attorneys' Title Insurance Fund publishes its Real Estate Forecast. This year, the report does little to bring enthusiasm to a much beleaguered market, instead predicting Florida's economy to lag the rest of the country.

The report has been published since 1975 by economist Hank Fishkind and uses deed data for more than 30 Florida counties, including Leon. It gives us a chance to see how Leon County projects versus the rest of the State. Unfortunately, Dr. Fishkind projects that most Florida housing markets will be down this year and will not see a recovery until 2011. But Fishkind has some positive thoughts for Leon County.

Florida Is In A Tough Recession

"This is the worst recession our area has seen since at least 1975-76," Fishkind said. "As we look back on it, it will probably be the worst in post-World War II history."

Florida lost more than 150,000 jobs last year -- the worst job performance in the nation, according to Fishkind. People without jobs can't pay their mortgages, which ignited the state's crippling foreclosure problem and throttled housing starts and prices.

You can download the 84-page Fishkind Report with its charts, graphs and analysis of 30 counties analyzed in great detail.

Fishkind Got It Wrong In 2008

The following table shows the middle range of Fishkind's 2008 Florida estimate. As you can see in the right hand column, he really missed the market in 2008. When comparing actual 2008 numbers to his Medium Scenario, his projections were 49.3% higher than actual market performance (off by 111,383 total units). It certainly leaves room to question the 2009 Annual Fishkind Forecast. fishkind-annual-forecast-2008-error

Fishkind Projects Leon County To Improve In 2009

leon-county-growth-in-population-and-employmentFishkind projects limited housing growth in 2009, and shows a growth in population and employment. Compared to the rest of Florida, this appears to be a glowing testimonial to a housing market rebound that will occur in Tallahassee. I'm just not so sure that his assumptions are correct or that the data that he used is the same as what we can get when we look at the recorded deeds in Tallahassee.

Just as I did last year, I will compare Fishkind's Leon County report with the Leon County Tax Appraiser's recorded filings. This will be published in The Tallahassee Real Estate Newsletter, so if you have not subscribed, please do so (in the form below).

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Joe Manausa is a real estate investor and the Broker and Co-Owner of Joe Manausa Real Estate. He can be reached via e-mail through the Tallahassee Real Estate Website or catch his latest writings on the Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog , or by calling (850) 386-2001.
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Joe Manausa, MBA is a 26 year veteran of real estate brokerage in Tallahassee, Florida and has owned and managed his own company since 1992. He is a daily blogger with content that focuses on real estate analytics and providing his clients with a tactical advantage in today's challenging market.

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