Finding The Market Turn

Posted by Joe Manausa on Saturday, August 9th, 2008 at 3:23pm.

I'm using this weekend to catch up on a lot of the market data that we have been collecting. As the summer selling season winds to an end and the fall season begins, I wonder how the inventory in the Tallahassee real estate market is going to be affected. If I am to believe that these short term trend graphs will continue to the long-term trend graphs, then we are viewing evidence of the market turn!

In my opinion, inventory movement is the most important measurement of the strength of a real estate market. If homes are moving, then prices are going to be stable. If housing inventories are stacking up, then we are going to see pricing preasure.

Based on this belief, we track the inventory in the Tallahassee real estate market almost daily. For current reports, you should bookmark http://www.manausa.com/markets.php, as we update it at least twice per week with new Tallahassee housing inventory reports.

I am hoping that the current inventory reports are showing us the first signs of the market turning in Tallahassee. From past posts, you may have noticed that the short-term trends are all showing inventory reduction, and we are seeing the medium-term trends move towards inventory reduction. While none of these reports contain a long enough term to declare the market turned, the signs are exciting.

Click To Enlarge Tallahassee Inventory Graph
Click To Enlarge Tallahassee Inventory Graph
As we can see in the graphic above, the short-term trend in Tallahassee is showing we are reducing housing inventory by 7 homes per day for the past 30 days, or 3 homes a day for the past 90 day. The 180 day trend, while still showing growth, has been dropping to where now we are only showing growth of 1/4th of a home per day! Keep watching this graph over the next few weeks and I suspect we'll see the 180 day trend move to inventory reduction.

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Joe Manausa is a real estate investor and the Broker and Co-Owner of Joe Manausa Real Estate. He can be reached via e-mail through the Tallahassee Real Estate Website or catch his latest writings on the Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog , or by calling (850) 386-2001.

 

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Joe Manausa, MBA is a 26 year veteran of real estate brokerage in Tallahassee, Florida and has owned and managed his own company since 1992. He is a daily blogger with content that focuses on real estate analytics and providing his clients with a tactical advantage in today's challenging market.

2 Responses to "Finding The Market Turn"

Mark Palace wrote: Great article Joe. Thanks! Here in South-Central Florida, we are also seeing a recovering market! Best, Mark Palace

Posted on Saturday, August 9th, 2008 at 4:15pm.

Carrie T wrote: Thanks for the great information. I have been looking at Florida property for a couple months now and trying to research the area. It is good to see some facts behind the "talk" of the market getting better. Thanks!!

Posted on Monday, August 11th, 2008 at 7:18pm.

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