Tallahassee Real Estate Blog

Tallahassee Housing Inventory Update

Joe Manausa — Thu, 24 Jul 2008 03:54:46 +0000

Today’s blog is going to be an update on the inventory of homes in the Tallahassee real estate market. I want to remind the readers that this information can be found, updated twice per week, on our Tallahassee Real Estate Web site at http://www.manausa.com/market.php.

The key to figuring out the market is understanding the cycles that we must endure. From the graphic below, we can see that we spent the past two years stuck between Point A and Point B. Prices have risen and we were seeing our inventory grow. This was in part due to over-building, but primarily due to the slowing actions of the Buyers. Buyers no longer saw great value in the prices of Tallahassee homes.

The reason that we track inventory movement on the Market Bulletin is so that we can get an early warning for any shifts in the cycle. We began to see prices dropping about four months ago, letting us now that we had shifted between Points B. and C.

This shift can be very subtle and it typically cannot be identified without tracking a one-year-inventory-trend of homes in the Tallahassee real estate market. Seasonality in the real estate market causes inventory adjustments year-long, so it takes a one-year trend to truly identify these market shifts.

The next key that we are looking for is inventory falling, as we see in the graphic between Points C. and D. Again, it takes a one-year trend to confirm that inventory is definitely falling, but some of the market graphs below are showing signs that we have moved to this phase of the market cycle.

Tallahassee Real Estate Market 30-Day Inventory Trend

This first chart is the shortest “short-term” trend chart that we maintain. The implications of what is demonstrated are fantastic…. inventory levels in Tallahassee appear to be dropping. But remember, this is just a short-term trend and we could be seeing the results of seasonality.

Tallahassee Housing Inventory Levels 90-Day Trend

Even more exciting, we find that the 90-day trend chart supports the 30-day trend. We are seeing inventories coming down over the past quarter of the year. If this trend continues, we will see if finally impact the 1/2 year trend below.

Tallahassee Homes - 180 Day Inventory Trend

Unfortunately, our 6-month trend shows that our inventory is still increasing. Only time will tell if the short-term movements will stick around long enough to affect the long-term trend.

Inventory Trends In The Tallahassee Real Estate Market

This chart summarizes the three previous charts. Once we have been tracking inventory levels for a year, this chart will speak volumes on the condition and future of inventory movement in the Tallahassee real estate market.

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Keep checking out the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog every day for updates that include charts, graphs, and analysis of the Tallahassee real estate market.

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Joe Manausa is a real estate investor and the Broker and Co-Owner of Century 21 First Realty. He can be reached via e-mail through the Tallahassee Real Estate Website or catch his latest writings on the Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog , or by calling (850) 386-2001.

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What’s For Sale in the Tallahassee Real Estate Market

Joe Manausa — Wed, 23 Jul 2008 08:54:27 +0000

As I get ready to make my annual trip to West Point, I find myself checking the Tallahassee Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service (MLS) to find out what is for sale in the Tallahassee real estate market.

The good news is that inventory has made a modest decline in the past few weeks. When I look at homes for sale in Tallahassee (single family detached homes, condos and townhouses), I find that the total inventory of homes on the market in Tallahassee has dropped to 3,217 homes. Here is how that breaks down:

Homes For Sale In Tallahassee

322 new construction, single family detached homes
1,845 resale, single family detached homes
334 new construction condos and townhouses
716 resale condos and townhouses
3,217 housing units for sale in Tallahassee

Of course I’m curious about pricing points, so here is what I have found about the average asking price by property type in Tallahassee:

Average Price Per Square Foot In Tallahassee

New construction, single family detached homes - $150 per square foot
Resale, single family detached homes - $140 per square foot
New construction condos and townhouses - $198 per square foot
Resale condos and townhouses - $121 per square foot
Average Price per square foot for a home in Tallahasseee - $143

Now, square footage costs is only a general rule of thumb, so don’t go grabbing your calculator to see what your home is worth (especially since these are the asking prices of what is on the market, of which, over 60% will fail to sell!).

I guess the next logical statistic to point out is the average asking price by property type, so here it is:

Average Asking Price For A Home In Tallahassee

New construction, single family detached homes - $320,691
Resale, single family detached homes - $301,126
New construction condos and townhouses - $266,413
Resale condos and townhouses - $138,893
Average asking price for a home in Tallahassee - $263,373

Now, to round out our Tallahassee housing data, the average home sizes are listed below:

Average Home Size In Tallahassee

New construction, single family detached homes - 2,135 Square Feet
Resale, single family detached homes - 2,149 Square Feet
New construction condos and townhouses - 1,349 Square Feet
Resale condos and townhouses - 1,150 Square Feet
Average home size in Tallahassee - 1,842 Square Feet

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Come See Heritage Hills

Joe Manausa — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 10:07:45 +0000

Do you want to live on your own 3 to 5 acre homesite, in a new home, at an affordable price, but still have easy access to town?

This is what everyone has been asking for. Just off I-10 at Hwy 59, you’ll find new 3 & 4 bedroom homes at Heritage Hills offering quiet, country living and a place to enjoy peaceful solitude.

After a hectic day at the office in town, doesn’t this sound refreshing? This new neighborhood is an exceptional buying opportunity. So many new neighborhoods are being built upon small lots, why not get your piece of the American Dream while the opportunity still exists? With many models to choose from each on three acres of land, you can be sure you’ll find just what you’ve been looking for! You can also purchase your own homesite here and build when you’re ready.

Water service is provided by Jefferson Communities Water and each site has an individual septic system. Underground electrical service is provided by Progress Energy and street lights will be provided by Progress as well.

Be sure to ask about our special pricing and incentives. We have a Parade of Homes Model for you to view, just call us to schedule your private viewing.

Need more info? Contact Tim Morgan, Realtor, Today.

See A Virtual Tour Of Our Model Home

HOW TO GET THERE: Take I-10 East to exit 217/Hwy. 59. Go north 0.5 miles. Entrance is on left.

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Ox Bottom And Summerbrooke - Tallahassee Neighborhood Reports

Joe Manausa — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 11:20:39 +0000

I was recently contacted by Kathy Fredericks, the publisher of many fine Home Owner Association newsletters in the Tallahassee real estate market. Kathy was hoping I could generate some “quick” content relevant to SummerBrooke and Ox Bottom Manor on the Northeast side of Tallahassee. I think this post will be pretty quick, but you will have to be the judge on relevancy…

Two of the larger neighborhoods in Northeast Tallahassee are Ox Bottom Manor and SummerBrooke. I have watched them grow from upstarts to mostly-full developments over the past 17 years. The homes in these two communities are larger than the Tallahassee median and they cost more as well.

As a quick overview, I went to the Leon County Tax records in order to see the historic sales in each of the subdivisions. For the purpose of this blog, I have combined Ox Bottom Manor, Ox Bottom Estates and Ox Bottom into one subdivision that is titled “Ox Bottom.” Therefore, in each of our market graphs, you will see four subdivisions. Ox Bottom, Ox Bottom Gardens, Ox Bottom Reserve, and Summerbrooke.

Ox Bottom And Summerbrooke Long-Term Trend

This first graph shows us the kind of information that homeowners love to see. Values climbing over time. This is the reason that people choose to buy homes rather than rent. All four neighborhoods represented in the graph have done very well over the long-term.

Ox Bottom And Summerbrooke Short-Term Trend

The trend for the past two years has been one of recovery for these strong Northeast Tallahassee communities. As you can see, the run-up in prices was very steep and each community is seeing corrective pricing at this time. The following table shows how much the average price has fallen from its high in each corresponding neighborhood:

Subdivision	Value vs. Market High
Ox Bottom	-17%
Ox Bottom Gardens	-6%
Ox Bottom Reserve	-8%
Summerbrooke	-8%

Look for an in-depth analysis of the Ox Bottom communities and the Summerbrooke community near the first of November. If you would like to see something specific included in that analysis, please use the comment feature of this blog.

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Housing Prices Decline Slightly - A Clear Picture Is Forming

Joe Manausa — Sat, 19 Jul 2008 15:44:49 +0000

We do a lot of work in the relocation industry (corporate moves and affinity relationships) and recently we were sent a request for information that I felt would make a great basis for a real estate blog for Tallahassee housing.

We are the principal broker for the Cartus Relocation Network in Tallahassee and they refer a lot of business to our residential office. They informed us that a customer is moving an employee from Pennsylvania to Tallahassee and was curious about price movements in the Tallahassee real estate market. Here is the message that we received:

“In an effort to offset any market value impact created by a relocation to Tallahassee, our client has asked Cartus to assist with some metrics. We have a transferee who owns a 3000 sq.ft home in Lakawanna PA. His January appraisal was $319K and his June appraisal was $282,500. Our client is asking if there has been a defined % of decrease in the sale price of a typical 3000 sq. ft home in Tallahassee between January and June.

Thanks for any assistance you can provide.

Best Regards

xxxxx“

This is a great question and really got me thinking about how to best answer and to provide the kind of information that the client is seeking. The quick answer would be to tell them that housing prices have declined slightly, but I wanted to give them a clearer picture of the market. I figured we could take a look at homes +/- 10% in size from 3,000 square feet and then graph the sales over the past six months (and beyond). Here is the graph of 3000 square foot homes in Tallahassee:

3000 Square Foot Homes Show Slight Decline In Value

The short answer to the question that we received is that 3000 square foot homes in Tallahassee have seen a very slight decline from January through June (less than 1/2%, much better than the Lakawanna market).

Of course, this exercise got me thinking about all the other information that could be derived from this type of analysis. I decided to take all the home sales in Leon County (Tallahassee real estate market) from the Tallahassee MLS and break them down into five size groups (1000,2000,3000,4000 & 5000 square feet). For example, the 2000 square foot homes in Tallahassee group was compiled from all homes sized from 1800 to 2200 square feet.

Category	Low End of Size Range	High End of Size Range	Homes Measured
1,000 Square Feet	900	1,100	1,539
2,000 Square Feet	1,800	2,200	4,710
3,000 Square Feet	2,700	3,300	1319
4,000 Square Feet	3,600	4,400	441
5,000 Square Feet	4,500	5,500	123

The first graph shows the unit sales trend, which basically means how many homes per month each category has been averaging over the past year. This graph does a great job of showing how dominant the 2000 square foot home category is in Tallahassee. It also shows that the number of homes selling each month continues to trend down and our current rate of sales is the lowest on this graph which dates back to 2001.

Home Sales Slowest in Eight Years

The second graph shows the average price trend of homes in Tallahassee. This graph shows the shows the price-running up for the years of 2004 to 2006, and the falling of prices since. Thus far, the average price has not dropped greatly.

Housing Prices On A Slow Decline

The next graph shows the price per square foot movement in each category. I believe this graph gives us the clearest picture of price movement in the Tallahassee real estate market.

Cost of Homes Lower Than Past

This final graph takes each of the three prior graphs and reports how each category has responded to the changing market from the top of the market forward. It demonstrates that since the market peaked a few years ago, the price and price per square foot trend is down from 2% for the average 3,000 square foot home to as much as 8% for the average 4,000 square foot home. Compared with the rest of the Country (and certainly with the rest of Florida, this is truly a slight decline in housing prices). It also demonstrates that unit sales are down from 25% for 5,000 square foot homes to as much as 46% for 1,000 square foot homes.

A Clear Picture Is Forming On Receding Home Prices

I hope these graphs give the reader a better understanding of what is going on in the Tallahassee real estate market. Sometimes the reports of numbers is just too confounding and it takes a picture to clarify the actual report.

This blog was the second blog posting in a row in which readers’ questions determined the subject. Please continue to post comments and make suggestions as to how we can make the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog more valuable to our readers.

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Tallahassee Bull Run

Joe Manausa — Fri, 18 Jul 2008 11:49:08 +0000

I had a request from a long-time reader yesterday that I felt would make a great follow-up article to the one that we did a few days ago on Southwood in Tallahassee. For those of you who saw the headline and were hoping for a “Running of the Bulls - Southern Style!,” then I am sorry to disappoint. This article is about the Bull Run Subdivision in Tallahassee, Florida, not about running with the bulls in Pamplono Spain.

MLM, a reader of my work for over 40 years, asked “Hi Joe, Could you do a blog on Bull Run similar to the one you did on Southwood on July 14th? Thanks a million.” How could I refuse such a request, even though I wrote a Bull Run Subdivision Information blog just two months ago!

The reason that this question is so timely is that Bull Run is very similar to Southwood, in that both neighborhoods are relatively new and new construction makes up a larger percentage of the total market than in most neighborhoods. As we saw in Southwood, the asking price for new construction was driving down the asking price for resale homes. Looking at Tallahassee’s Bull Run today, we see the same thing.

What this chart doesn’t show is that 26 homes are on the market in Bull Run, with 18 of them being new construction and 8 being resales. This is certainly a sign that this is a new neighborhood that is just starting to take shape.

This graph points out some key points that everybody in the Tallahassee real estate market should be aware of.

The average asking price of a new construction home (new home) in Bull Run is $375,000
The average asking price of a resale home (used home) in Bull Run is $503,000
The average asking price per square foot of a resale home is 6% higher than a new home

These key points are totally out of whack with “normal.” I am concerned that it might be a sign that homeowners in Bull Run are not in touch with current home values in the Tallahassee real estate market.

Finally, taking a look at one-year sales trends for the Bull Run neighborhood, we find that unit sales are down roughly 50% from the top of its market (November 2006) and the average price has dipped about 10% from just six months ago.

This blog has shown that Bull Run is just starting to go through a period of correction. Builders have listened to the market and are building homes a little smaller and a bit cheaper. Once the resales adjust to this new level, you can be sure that sales in the Bull Run neighborhood will be as vibrant as anywhere in the Tallahassee real estate market.

Keep checking out the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog every day for updates that include charts, graphs, and analysis of the Tallahassee real estate market.

If you like this Article then please subscribe to my blog through a full RSS feed, or you can subscribe with You will be able to stay informed about the happenings in the Tallahassee Real Estate Market. You can also subscribe to this blog and have it delivered by Email.

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