We have been watching inventories continue to rise in the residential real estate market for a very long time, going back to 2005. The Tallahassee Real Estate Blog has been instructing readers that the first sign of change in the housing market should be noted when inventory levels begin to fall on a long-term trend. I can say, with cautious optimism, that we are starting to see our long-term trend move to falling inventories in the Tallahassee real estate market.
Tallahassee Housing Inventory Falls On Short Term TrendThe thirty day trend is a look at what we have been seeing, on average, during the past thirty days. On average, the Tallahassee real estate market has seen more than four homes per day (NET) leave the market over the past thirty days. That means the number of homes for sale in Tallahassee is roughly 130 fewer homes today than it was at this time last month.
Long Term Trend Positive For Tallahassee Home Inventory
Just as the thirty day trend is positive, the 180 day trend is also showing a reduction of Tallahassee homes for sale. The 180 day trend is showing 2.5 fewer homes for sale in Tallahassee each day, meaning that over the past 6 months, the inventory of homes has fallen by 450 homes!
Home Selling Success Rates In Tallahassee Starting To Fall
Part of the reduction in home inventories is due to an increase in home selling success rates. The following graph measures the trend of homes sold versus homes listed for sale each day. What we are looking for is the direction of the trend line, as opposed to the absolute value at any given point.
Using the graph above, we can see the all the trends were near the upper thirties (34% - 40%) when our measurement began in mid-June of this year. Sales success rates rose up around the 45% range (meaning 45% of the homes listed were selling) by the end of August, but we are now seeing that number begin to decline.
I suspect when we observe this graph near the end of February, the trends will be in the low thirties again. Whether or not this fall is enough to turn around the inventory reduction remains to be seen. Stay tuned to the Tallahassee real estate blog for updates, or you can check our regularly updated "Market Bulletin" for charts, graphs, and analysis of the Tallahassee real estate market.
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Joe Manausa, MBA is a 26 year veteran of real estate brokerage in Tallahassee, Florida and has owned and managed his own company since 1992. He is a daily blogger with content that focuses on real estate analytics and providing his clients with a tactical advantage in today's challenging market.