The Real Estate Market - When Will We See The Turn?
I have been doing a lot of research and reading lately, as I feel this is the toughest real estate market cycle that I have been through in my 17 years of brokering in the Tallahassee real estate market. It seems that many people have an opinion on real estate, and many have speculated that the worst is behind us. While I’m excited to think that some of the stories in the media could actually turn positive soon, I feel that some simple concepts can reveal where we truly are in this current real estate market cycle.
Let us first define what a “good real estate market” is versus a “bad real estate market.” A good real estate market is where Sellers can put their homes on the market and can fairly quickly sell them, while a bad real estate market is where most sellers will fail to sell their home. Fair enough? In a good market, home prices appreciate, and in a bad market homes depreciate.
So how do we know which way the market is going? As simple as this question sounds, the answer is equally simple to tell. All you have to do is look at the flow of inventory over a period of time. Are more homes coming onto the market (creating inventory….creating glut)? Or, are more homes leaving the market (reducing inventory … leaving demand unfulfilled)? That is all we have to measure!
The Tallahassee Real Estate Inventory Report, which can be found updated several times per week, shows that the inventory is still growing. We need to see the “yellow” portion of the chart move below the zero line on a consistent basis to know that market has turned.
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Joe Manausa is a real estate investor and the Broker and Co-Owner of Century 21 First Realty. He can be reached via e-mail through the Tallahassee Real Estate Website or catch his latest writings on the Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog , or by calling (850) 386-2001.
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April 27th, 2008 at 5:02 pm
Spelled it out pretty simply, but the question of when is still left unanswered. Too bad, you could make a million, if only you could see into the future.
April 27th, 2008 at 8:11 pm
Great explanation and works in all markets. National markets and trends rarely relate to local market conditions.
April 28th, 2008 at 6:28 am
Thanks Sara and Kaye. The “when” is the mystery question indeed. Is should be fairly obvious, though viewed in the rear-view mirror.
May 4th, 2008 at 11:54 am
The turn will come as soon as the inventory comes off the market. From the chart you have posted, it looks like inventory has stopped growing in your area.
May 14th, 2008 at 5:19 am
If only we knew when the tides would turn! I was a mortgage underwriter/processor (previous life) for du/lp/fha/va until
the downturn.
Thank you for the post and for submitting it to my first blog carnival.
Rosemary
http://her -home-blog. com/2008/05/her-home-blog-carnival-edition-1/
May 19th, 2008 at 7:09 pm
People just aren’t buying houses, period. It is like the perfect storm of factors, from rising gas and food prices to soaring real estate taxes (on depreciating homes) and even gas and electric bills.I don’t know the unemployment statistics for our area but it isn’t good.