Tallahassee Real Estate Blog

We often evaluate properties for investment purposes here at the Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog. Having done so for years, we have learned, discovered, and compiled some great models that can be learned by anyone.

Today, let’s take a look at a model that I refer to as the Real Estate Stack. This is the most basic of measurement models which allows an investor to take an investment and convert it to a mathematical model so that it can be compared with all other investment opportunities.

Too often, I see “wanna-be” investors wanting to go look at properties. Personally, I never like to go look at investment properties until I’ve already seen the numbers potential. If the numbers are not super attractive, then looking at the property is not only a waste of time, but it also brings in the opportunity for faulty decision making through emotional attachment. I would hate to “fall in love” with a property where the numbers cannot work out as well as another property.

So, on to the Real Estate Stack. This is the most basic of mathematical modeling which allows the investor to determine the Net Operating Income (NOI) of a property. All the key terms in the model are explained below:

Gross Potential Income (GPI)

The Gross Potential Income of a property is simply the “best case scenario” of what it can generate in rent. If a property can rent for $900-$1,000 per month for rent, the the GPI would be $1,000 x 12 = $12,000 per year.

Vacancy and Collection Losses (V/C)

Vacancy is the measurement of time, expressed in percentage of the year, that you would expect the property to not have a tenant. Every property will have periods of vacancy due to change-over in tenants plus market cycles that make it harder to find tenants.

Collection losses, much like vacancy in that no income is occurring, is when non-paying tenants are in the property and either need to be motivated or evicted. This too is expressed as a percentage figure annually.

The key to Vacancy and Collection Losses is that you can compare different types of properties in different market cycles. Perhaps a home in the higher price range will have longer occupying tenants, thus a lower vacancy, whereas a property in a student area can be expected to turn nearly every year, resulting in a higher vacancy. Using the correct figures for vacancy allows us to compare these two properties and determine which one is the better buy.

Effective Gross Income (EGI)

Effective Gross Income is the amount of revenue we anticipate receiving annually while owning the property. This is not the “best case scenario,” rather it is the “realistic case scenario.”

Operating Expenses (OE)

Operating Expenses are those things that the property owner must pay for while owning the property. Such expenses might include property taxes, hazard insurance, maintenance fees, management fees, homeowners association expenses, utilities, and reserves for replacements (roofs, HVAC systems, etc.).

Net Operating Income (NOI)

The NOI is the amount of money that would go to any investor after receiving all income and paying all expenses, with the exception of payments on loans and income taxes. The NOI is important because it makes all real estate investments that are purchased for cash flow equivalent.

Annual Debt Service (ADS)

This is the total of mortgage payments for the year. The annual debt service includes the principal and interest portion of the payment for all twelve months.

Cash Flow Before Taxes (CFBT)

Cash Flow Before Taxes is the amount of money realized by the investor for the year, whether positive or negative, before income taxes are considered.

The Real Estate Stack

So there is the simple Real Estate Stack. Try it out. Use it with several properties to find out which ones will be better investments. You can check out yesterday’s blog about Bull Run In Tallahassee Florida and see the Real Estate Stack in full operation. Let me know what you think!

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Keep checking out the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog every day for updates that include charts, graphs, and analysis of the Tallahassee real estate market.

If you like this Article then please subscribe to my blog through a full RSS feed. You will be able to stay informed about the happenings in the Tallahassee Real Estate Market. You can also subscribe to this blog and have it delivered by Email.

Joe Manausa is a real estate investor and the Broker and Co-Owner of Century 21 First Realty. He can be reached via e-mail through the Tallahassee Real Estate Website or catch his latest writings on the Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog , or by calling (850) 386-2001.

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Recently, a reader of the Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog going by the name “Jim” asked ”

Joe, Can you do a subdivision workup for Bull Run?“

Jim, you asked this question on the perfect day. Not only was I interested in knowing how Bull Run was doing, I also got hit with a case of writers block and really didn’t know what to cover today. So here it goes.

Bull Run in Tallahassee Florida

According to the Leon County Tax records, home sales began in Bull Run in 2005.

Using the sales data from Bull Run, our graph shows us that the price trend is declining:

Taking information from the MLS, we find the following supply and demand characteristics in Bull Run in Tallahassee: In the past twelve months, 34 homes have sold and currently there are 28 homes listed for sale in Bull Run. That implies a 9.9 months of supply figure (which is better than much of Leon County).

This shows the price per square foot rose about 3% per year from 2005 to 2007, but has since dropped over 7%. 7 homes have sold in 2008 in Bull Run in Tallahassee, and they have sold for an average price per square foot of just over $159.

The key to buying a home in Bull Run will be to know exactly what has sold, new versus resale, Builder A versus Builder B, etc. The same thing goes if you need to sell a home. This is simply a snapshot of the market in Bull Run in Tallahassee and it should give the reader a fairly good expectation of where the market is currently trading.

As a reminder for those who subscribe to the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog by email, some embedded pictures and videos might not be appearing in your email and you might need to click the title header to go to your browser where all will be visible.

Keep checking out the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog every day for updates that include charts, graphs, and analysis of the Tallahassee real estate market.

If you like this Article then please subscribe to my blog through a full RSS feed. You will be able to stay informed about the happenings in the Tallahassee Real Estate Market. You can also subscribe to this blog and have it delivered by Email.

Joe Manausa is a real estate investor and the Broker and Co-Owner of Century 21 First Realty. He can be reached via e-mail through the Tallahassee Real Estate Website or catch his latest writings on the Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog , or by calling (850) 386-2001.

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I am helping an investor buy an investment property in Tallahassee today. With most people concerned about the market and choosing to be sellers, he likes to “swim upstream” and so he has moved to a buying position in the Tallahassee real estate market.

I figured our selection process might make for an interesting blog post. The simplicity of what he is doing has caused me to realize that sometimes our fears cause us to miss the obvious signs of what we should do. But as he reminded me, the return in real estate is found in long-term, leveraged appreciation. Too many investors think the money is in speculation or in the “flip,” whereas seasoned investors like to watch the appreciation build up.

So, today’s Tallahassee Real Estate Blog will feature a home for sale in Tallahassee. This is a real home that is completely renovated and will draw rents of $1,250 to $1,300 per month from the market. And because it has been completely renovated, the operating expenses on this unit will be lower than a typical property as all replacements have been recently made. It makes for the perfect investment property in Tallahassee.

I have included a simplified, but accurate, purchase analysis that shows an investor can buy this investment property in Tallahassee and should expect to realize a long-term, annual rate of return exceeding 20%!!! Not too bad for a “down market!”

In this example, we see the home is purchased for $118K with the buyer paying 3% towards closing costs. Assuming the buyer put 20% down, that would be total cash out of pocket for the buyer of  $27,140.

As we can see from the example above, the short-term after-tax “cash on cash” return is basically 7.6%, but the overall return exceeds 20%. You can build serious wealth over time when you get your return on investment (ROI) north of 20%, which is all the more reason to consider buying an investment property in Tallahassee.

As a reminder for those who subscribe to the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog by email, some embedded pictures and videos might not be appearing in your email and you might need to click the title header to go to your browser where all will be visible.

Keep checking out the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog every day for updates that include charts, graphs, and analysis of the Tallahassee real estate market.

If you like this Article then please subscribe to my blog through a full RSS feed. You will be able to stay informed about the happenings in the Tallahassee Real Estate Market. You can also subscribe to this blog and have it delivered by Email.

Joe Manausa is a real estate investor and the Broker and Co-Owner of Century 21 First Realty. He can be reached via e-mail through the Tallahassee Real Estate Website or catch his latest writings on the Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog , or by calling (850) 386-2001.

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Today’s posting on the Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog will be short and sweet. I’ve just come back into town and have a lot of catch-up work to do.

I’ve been out of town since Thursday and the first thing that I want to know is whether or not we’ve seen a directional change in the residential inventory in the Tallahassee real estate market. The easiest way to do this is to go to the Tallahassee Real Estate Market Bulletin and check the graph. If the yellow section is below the zero line, then inventories are finally dropping. If the yellow is still above the zero line, then we are continuing to add inventory.

As we can tell from the graph above, our sixty-day trend is still “above the line.” This means that our residential inventory in the Tallahassee real estate market is growing by about 2 homes per day.

I am looking forward to the day that we see the yellow band drop below the line, which would mean that residential inventory in the Tallahassee real estate market would finally be dropping!

!

As a reminder for those who subscribe to the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog by email, some embedded pictures and videos might not be appearing in your email and you might need to click the title header to go to your browser where all will be visible.

Keep checking out the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog every day for updates that include charts, graphs, and analysis of the Tallahassee real estate market.

As a reminder for those who subscribe to the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog by email, some embedded pictures and videos might not be appearing in your email and you might need to click the title header to go to your browser where all will be visible.

Keep checking out the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog every day for updates that include charts, graphs, and analysis of the Tallahassee real estate market.

If you like this Article then please subscribe to my blog through a full RSS feed. You will be able to stay informed about the happenings in the Tallahassee Real Estate Market. You can also subscribe to this blog and have it delivered by Email.

Joe Manausa is a real estate investor and the Broker and Co-Owner of Century 21 First Realty. He can be reached via e-mail through the Tallahassee Real Estate Website or catch his latest writings on the Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog , or by calling (850) 386-2001.

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Thank you everybody for the great feedback from yesterday’s blog about price reductions in the Tallahassee real estate market.

As I am on the road, this will be a brief update about yesterday’s conversation regarding a price-reduction page coming to the Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Web Site. Please preview the draft format by clicking the link below.

I would love some feedback on the fields displayed in this table. I’m not looking to make this a comprehensive project, but if you have ideas on what could make it better, please provide them in the comments section below.

As a reminder for those who subscribe to the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog by email, some embedded pictures and videos might not be appearing in your email and you might need to click the title header to go to your browser where all will be visible.

Keep checking out the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog every day for updates that include charts, graphs, and analysis of the Tallahassee real estate market.

As a reminder for those who subscribe to the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog by email, some embedded pictures and videos might not be appearing in your email and you might need to click the title header to go to your browser where all will be visible.

Keep checking out the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog every day for updates that include charts, graphs, and analysis of the Tallahassee real estate market.

If you like this Article then please subscribe to my blog through a full RSS feed. You will be able to stay informed about the happenings in the Tallahassee Real Estate Market. You can also subscribe to this blog and have it delivered by Email.

Joe Manausa is a real estate investor and the Broker and Co-Owner of Century 21 First Realty. He can be reached via e-mail through the Tallahassee Real Estate Website or catch his latest writings on the Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog , or by calling (850) 386-2001.

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Today is a travel day for me. I’m heading to Chicago and will getting to see some of the real estate in the great Midwest.

As I sit here and write this in the airport, I am listening to the people sitting near me discussing their recent purchase of a home in Tallahassee. While I know that eavesdropping isn’t exactly good form, I am pleasantly surprised at the optimism that I see in them about the real estate market in the next few years. You see, they felt that prices had come down to the levels they were right before the boom, therefore buying today is just like being able to buy a home in Tallahassee in 2005.

So that gave me a great idea. What if I could create a “Price Reductions” page on the Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Web Site that would allow our readers to have a way to see properties that might becoming “great buys.” For example, here is one example of a great buy that I am aware of on the NE side of the Tallahassee real estate market. I knew the owners of this home before the current owners, and between the two of them, this great home has been pampered and improved since the day it was built. It is in the Lenox Mill Subdivision located on Thomasville Road, just north of Velda Dairy Road.

REDUCED $10,000

See a virtual tour of 3456 Chamblee Road

So here’s the big question. If you would like to see a permanent “Price Reductions In Tallahassee Real Estate” page, comment below. If I get enough response, we’ll add that to our Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Web Site. I look forward to hearing from you.

As a reminder for those who subscribe to the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog by email, some embedded pictures and videos might not be appearing in your email and you might need to click the title header to go to your browser where all will be visible.

As a reminder for those who subscribe to the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog by email, some embedded pictures and videos might not be appearing in your email and you might need to click the title header to go to your browser where all will be visible.

Keep checking out the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog every day for updates that include charts, graphs, and analysis of the Tallahassee real estate market.

If you like this Article then please subscribe to my blog through a full RSS feed. You will be able to stay informed about the happenings in the Tallahassee Real Estate Market. You can also subscribe to this blog and have it delivered by Email.

Joe Manausa is a real estate investor and the Broker and Co-Owner of Century 21 First Realty. He can be reached via e-mail through the Tallahassee Real Estate Website or catch his latest writings on the Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog , or by calling (850) 386-2001.

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Perhaps the question that I get more often than any other is “What do you see happening in the future of the Tallahassee real estate market?”

Unfortunately, I do not have a crystal ball, but I do have data on hand that has been recorded since 1991 and I’m thinking that there might be a way to extrapolate a housing consumption estimate for the future by looking at what has happened in the past.

I have a housing consumption formula that I have produced for this blog posting and I would love to see comments from readers regarding any errors in the model or just commenting on the results of the analysis.

Housing Consumption

My formula has two key points:

º There always exist two types of housing consumers - Discretionary and non-discretionary
º The non-discretionary buyers can be predicted by looking at population changes

Discretionary home consumers are people who buy a home simply because they want to make a move. They typically have just undergone a “life event” that created some type of desire to make a move, whereas non-discretionary buyers pretty much have to move. They have been relocated from one market area to another or have had something happen that requires them to move. While there is certainly some “gray area” between these two extremes, I will consider everybody in either one or the other category when trying to determine a housing consumption estimation.

The demand side of the housing consumption issue is the number of potential buyers for homes in the Tallahassee real estate market. And contrary to popular belief, the number of potential buyers remains relatively constant, moving as the population moves. It is the perception of value that causes more people to consume or the lack of perception of value that causes people to not make a move.

In most markets where the population is changing (whether growing or receding), you can expect the non-discretionary consumer pool to be changing at that same rate. It is this relationship between population change and non-discretionary consumption that might allow one to predict future housing consumption in any given real estate market. The graph below projects my prediction of the housing consumption in the Tallahassee real estate market through 2010. This includes both discretionary and non-discretionary buyers, and is accurate to .0000001% (just kidding).

As you can see from the graph above (and the chart below), the discretionary buyers went on a buying-spree from 2001 through 2006. Prior to that, there was basically 10 years of conservative buying from this group. Currently, we are seeing very little action from the discretionary buyers and it is having a significant affect on housing consumption in the Tallahassee real estate market. Last year, we saw fewer home purchases than we have seen since 1998, and this year will be the worst year for which I have records (I have all years from 1991 to present).

While I will keep my formula for predicting the home sales private for right now, I will disclose that discretionary buyer habits are predictable over a long period of time, but tougher to predict over a shorter term. Looking at the table above, I have predicted 4,390 home sales for the Tallahassee real estate market in 2008. Any error in this number can be applied to the following two years, meaning the predictive model projects housing consumption to be roughly 15,522 for the three years of 2008-2010. Additionally, all population numbers in the past came from the US Census, while the future numbers are my estimates based upon the recent trend of growth in Leon County.

I encourage all the math-wizzes out there to comment on the reasoning in my model. I would like to continue working on the “special sauce” and then start applying it other real estate markets across the United States.

As a reminder for those who subscribe to the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog by email, some embedded pictures and videos might not be appearing in your email and you might need to click the title header to go to your browser where all will be visible.

Keep checking out the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog every day for updates that include charts, graphs, and analysis of the Tallahassee real estate market.

If you like this Article then please subscribe to my blog through a full RSS feed. You will be able to stay informed about the happenings in the Tallahassee Real Estate Market. You can also subscribe to this blog and have it delivered by Email.

Joe Manausa is a real estate investor and the Broker and Co-Owner of Century 21 First Realty. He can be reached via e-mail through the Tallahassee Real Estate Website or catch his latest writings on the Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog , or by calling (850) 386-2001.

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This is our third consecutive month of offering our free Tallahassee Housing Report. The purpose is to provide useful information about Tallahassee Housing by showing supply and demand across all price ranges in Leon County. This is the most comprehensive report that you will find on supply and demand in Tallahassee because it brings in more sources than just the Tallahassee Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service (MLS).

So here it is again. This month, we have simplified the Tallahassee Housing Report by removing a column of information that readers found to be “too busy.” We hope you continue to provide feedback to us on this report so that we can improve it each month. If you have any questions on how to read the report, please comment below. Our goal is to make this a user-guided resource for now and well into the future.

We encourage you to download this report and take some time getting to understand it’s very useful information about supply and demand in the Tallahassee housing market.

Tallahassee Housing Inventory Report - May 2008

Tallahassee Housing Inventory Report - April 2008

Tallahassee Housing Inventory Report - March 2008

As a reminder for those who subscribe to the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog by email, some embedded pictures and videos might not be appearing in your email and you might need to click the title header to go to your browser where all will be visible.

Keep checking out the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog every day for updates that include charts, graphs, and analysis of the Tallahassee real estate market.

If you like this Article then please subscribe to my blog through a full RSS feed. You will be able to stay informed about the happenings in the Tallahassee Real Estate Market. You can also subscribe to this blog and have it delivered by Email.

Joe Manausa is a real estate investor and the Broker and Co-Owner of Century 21 First Realty. He can be reached via e-mail through the Tallahassee Real Estate Website or catch his latest writings on the Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog , or by calling (850) 386-2001.

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It’s all the talk among the real estate blogs. Have you heard?

I had not written a blog on real estate short sales because there is so much out there already. I decided to get up early this morning and see if anybody had written anything that would explain this process to a lay-person (a lay-person in short sales is somebody who owns a home with lots of equity — humor).

So what exactly is a short sale?

A real estate short sale is when a home gets sold and the proceeds from the sale “fall short” of what the property owners owes on the mortgage(s) on the home. The bank(s) agrees prior to closing to accept a lesser amount than what it is owned. The bank will do this if it feels it will get more money through a short sale than through the timely and expensive cost of a foreclosure action. The property owner will often consider a real estate short sale when the owner receives assurance from the bank the loan will be deemed “paid in full.” Sometimes though, the property owner’s only option is the short sale, even if a deficiency judgement results in the process.

Some Short Sale Advice

If you own a home that is highly leveraged (read that to mean that you borrowed as much money on it as you could sometime in the past three years) and you need to move for one reason or another, you need to know that you basically have four options right now:

1. Don’t move, stay in the property
2. Lease the home out to a tenant
3. Sell the home on the market
4. Give the property back to the bank (surrender the property with a quit-claim or deed in lieu of foreclosure)

Because this is a blog about real estate short sales, we will assume that number 1. and number 2. are not options for you. In order to determine if a short sale is the right solution, the next step is to meet with a real estate professional that is an expert in real estate short sales.

Interviewing the Real Estate Short Sale Expert

Once you have determined that you must sell your home and you are concerned about maintaining your credit rating, you must interview the best real estate company to successfully work through the real estate short sale. That’s right, the correct company. The short sale process is easy to talk about, but the reality is that few companies give good short sale advice. Good companies successfully help the property owner through to the very end, with complete forgiveness on the loan. Here are some critical issues you should address in the interview:

• Do-Conduct the interview at the office of the real estate company. Tour the facilities and make sure you are introduced to the team that manages short sales.
• Do-Find out what banks with which they have successfully negotiated (they should mention contacts in the bank’s Loss Mitigation Department).
• Do-Ask for specific sales (properties and names) that they have successfully concluded a real estate short sale.
• Do-Ask for the basis of their short sales training.
• Do Not - be concerned with how many homes they sold in your neighborhood (unless they were short sales).
• Do Not - be concerned with the car that they drive.
• Do Not - be concerned with how many homes they sold in the past (during the boom market with few or no short sales).

The Real Estate Short Sale Process

First and foremost, one must realize that real estate short sales take much longer than “normal” sales. This is because the bank requires a due-diligence period to ensure that it is not being taken advantage of and to ensure that it is getting the best return on its investment. I believe that this is fair. But there are things that your real estate company can do to make the short sale process go quicker, and that is where experience is the key.

A real estate company with real estate short sale experience will have a kit, a package, or at least a process to expedite the lenders decision-making ability. This package should include everything the lender will need to form its opinion on the real recovery value of the property. Additionally, the real estate company giving you short sale advice should be prepared to provide the following information to the lender at first contact (Be proactive, do not wait for the lender to ask):

• Property Taxes - current status and annual amount
• Homeowners Association - Annual fees and contact information
• Lawn maintenance - current handler contact information and fee structure
• Code violations - current status and amount
• Pool maintenance - current status and monthly amount
• Utilities - current status and monthly amount
• Property Condition - current status and deferred maintenance needs
• True sale-able value - Provide comprehensive market analysis including homes on the market and homes that failed to sell

Once the lender(s) has made a decision, just remember that there are often layers of decision makers at every bank. All agreements must be approved through the lenders legal department, and this too adds to the time it takes to close on a real estate short sale.

Conclusion

If you plan on selling through a real estate short sale, just understand that it will take some work. In the long run, it will be worth the hassle as you will better protect your credit rating and you most likely won’t have to repay as much of the money. The choice of real estate expert could be the difference between success and failure, so choose wisely on who should give you this short sale advice.

If you plan on buying through a real estate short sale, remember that patience is a virtue. No matter what the home owner agrees upon in the sales contract, the bank will be the final decision maker in the process. The bank and the real estate professionals will determine how long the entire process takes, so choose your short sale advice (real estate company) carefully.

As a reminder for those who subscribe to the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog by email, some embedded pictures and videos might not be appearing in your email and you might need to click the title header to go to your browser where all will be visible.

Keep checking out the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog every day for updates that include charts, graphs, and analysis of the Tallahassee real estate market.

If you like this Article then please subscribe to my blog through a full RSS feed. You will be able to stay informed about the happenings in the Tallahassee Real Estate Market. You can also subscribe to this blog and have it delivered by Email.

Joe Manausa is a real estate investor and the Broker and Co-Owner of Century 21 First Realty. He can be reached via e-mail through the Tallahassee Real Estate Website or catch his latest writings on the Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog , or by calling (850) 386-2001.

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Tallahassee Real Estate market data is in for April.

The month of April saw a continuation of the depressed market in Tallahassee. Unit sales were very low for April (which is normally a very good month) in the Tallahassee real estate market. Below are 12 different charts which through the link below them will demonstrate different aspects of Tallahassee real estate activity during the month of April.

As a reminder for those who subscribe to the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog by email, some embedded pictures and videos might not be appearing in your email and you might need to click the title header to go to your browser where all will be visible.

Keep checking out the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog every day for updates that include charts, graphs, and analysis of the Tallahassee real estate market.

If you like this Article then please subscribe to my blog through a full RSS feed. You will be able to stay informed about the happenings in the Tallahassee Real Estate Market. You can also subscribe to this blog and have it delivered by Email.

Joe Manausa is a real estate investor and the Broker and Co-Owner of Century 21 First Realty. He can be reached via e-mail through the Tallahassee Real Estate Website or catch his latest writings on the Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog , or by calling (850) 386-2001.

If you'd like to forward this post to someone you think might be interested, simply click on the "Share This" link and click "E-mail."
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