Tallahassee Real Estate Blog

I had a reader who formulated an opinion about the Tallahassee Real Estate Market, based upon some statistical figures he found on a web site. I did not agree with his numbers and told him so. He responded with this comment:

“Here’s the Link. My guess is that the natural demand in Tallahassee might be around 2500 homes per year, or 200 house per month. Last four months of 2007 may be the true indication of demand in Tallahassee. If my estimated demand is true, then we might have enough inventory to last for the next two years. For sale signs are eveywhere in my neighborhood.”

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Rather than reply in the comments section, I figured this would make a good, informative blog. The reader is “my kind of guy/gal” in that he or she is doing his homework. It always make sense to study the market before making a decision. So, I followed his link, thankful that he provided it. It turns out the link goes to a “statistical” site that gets its information from FAR (The Florida Association of Realtors). That means they get their information from a collection of Realtor MLS’s, which usually contain somewhere between 45% and 65% of the entire market. Many sales in the market are not recorded in an MLS, including some Realtor sales that the Realtor did not need to use the MLS for marketing. Additionally, there are sales that have no Realtor invoived (such as some builder sales and some “For Sale By Owner” sales) which means the MLS cannot be viewed as the “end all” for housing demand.

Below, I have provided the real numbers. My data comes from a company called Metro Market Trends which actually goes to the Leon County Courthouse and pulls the recorded sales information. This includes all the sales in the MLS. It also includes sales not in the MLS (which could be 1/3rd to 1/2 of the market).

As you can see, we have had growth for the past twelve years (which correlates to the growth in population during that same time). Graphically, this information looks like below. The blue (measured on the left) represents the “average monthly sales for each year), the red (measured on the right) is the annual residential sales, while the green (measured on the left) is the linear trend for monthly sales.

So, in my opinion, I think the Tallahassee housing market is growing. There will be years where we slide backwards, just as there will be years that the market will surge ahead. But based upon my study of the market, it appears that the number of residences that will sell each month (on annual average) is growing towards 575 (see the green linear trend line). I feel very confident that 2008 WILL NOT aveage 575 units per month, but when we look back ten years from now, I believe that the trend line will continue to be moving up.

As a reminder for those who subscribe to the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog by email, some embedded pictures and videos might not be appearing in your email and you might need to click the title header to go to your browser where all will be visible.

Keep checking out the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog every day for updates that include charts, graphs, and analysis of the Tallahassee real estate market.

If you like this Article then please subscribe to my blog through a full RSS feed. You will be able to stay informed about the happenings in the Tallahassee Real Estate Market. You can also subscribe to this blog and have it delivered by Email.

Joe Manausa is a real estate investor and the Broker and Co-Owner of Century 21 First Realty. He can be reached via e-mail through the Tallahassee Real Estate Website or catch his latest writings on the Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog , or by calling (850) 386-2001.

If you'd like to forward this post to someone you think might be interested, simply click on the "Share This" link and click "E-mail."
Share This

Where are the “best buys” in the Tallahassee Real Estate Market?”

While location is a critical element to many buyers, if you are just seeking “more bang for the buck,” it might make sense to take a look at homes for sale in Wakulla County, homes for sale in Gadsden County, homes for sale in Jefferson County, as well as homes for sale in Leon County Florida.

For the sake of this blog, I took all the recorded sales in Leon, Gadsden, Jefferson and Wakulla Counties (recorded at corresponding county courthouses) for the year 2007 in order to have a look at how home prices compared. I then charted the average price of a home in each county. For each chart in this blog, I have included Leon County’s numbers for both 2007 (red) and ten years ago in 1997 (black) to see the relative changes.

Next, I took a look at the number of homes that were sold in each county. As it turns out, we have some healthy activity in these counties:

I also looked at the average cost per square foot of construction (Total Square Footage, not just heated and cooled) to see how the counties compared.

Finally, I looked at residential lot sales in each county to see how land costs would affect new construction.

Summary

A few things really jump out from this information:

• The average price per square foot* for a home** in Leon County is higher than the surrounding counties
• The average price per square foot* for a home** in Leon County has increased 92% in the past ten years
• Unit sales for homes** in Leon County were 8% higher in 2007 than they were in 1997
• The average price for a home** in Leon County has increased 96% since 1997
• The average price for a residential lot in Leon County is double that of its neighboring counties

*   Not all sales are recorded with square footage, so only those recorded with square footage (total square footage, not just heated and cooled) were used to determine these figures

** For the purpose of this posting, the term “home” includes single family detached houses, condominiums and townhouses.

As a reminder for those who subscribe to the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog by email, some embedded pictures and videos might not be appearing in your email and you might need to click the title header to go to your browser where all will be visible.

Keep checking out the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog every day for updates that include charts, graphs, and analysis of the Tallahassee real estate market.

If you like this Article then please subscribe to my blog through a full RSS feed. You will be able to stay informed about the happenings in the Tallahassee Real Estate Market. You can also subscribe to this blog and have it delivered by Email.

Joe Manausa is a real estate investor and the Broker and Co-Owner of Century 21 First Realty. He can be reached via e-mail through the Tallahassee Real Estate Website or catch his latest writings on the Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog , or by calling (850) 386-2001.

If you'd like to forward this post to someone you think might be interested, simply click on the "Share This" link and click "E-mail."
Share This

Often times, we read articles written in local and national publications referring to the state of the real estate market. Much of these articles are written based upon the sales activity of both new and resale single family homes in a particular area, such as the Tallahassee real estate market.

It is important to understand a dynamic that is happening in the Tallahassee real estate market that is so important to the measurement of our activity. The dynamic that I refer to regards the condominium/townhouse (CT) category encroaching on the single family detached home (SF).

As land prices have skyrocketed, it is becoming nearly impossible to bring a $150,000 single family home to the market. The average price for a lot in Leon County is over $80,000 (and we seen surges higher than $100,000!). This means that builders and developers are looking to get more homes in an area than would have previously been done.

Townhouse and condo communities give the builder and developer a chance to get more homes per acre, thus reducing the overall land cost per residential unit. With lower land costs, the builder can bring the townhome or condominium to the market for those seeking prices below $150,000.

So why is this such an important dynamic? Because many “experts” measure the market based upon the sales of single family homes only, and treat the condominium and townhouse market seperately! This just cannot be done anymore. These two categories must be studied in total, as they now reflect the Tallahassee housing market. Think about it, even in a flat market, if we only measure single family home activity, we will see it drop. Conversely, in that same market, we will see the condo and townhome market rise. Most experts would be calling that flat market a “falling market” because they only looked at one portion of the residential market.

In the chart below, we see the Tallahassee residential real estate market, including all single family homes, condominiums and townhouses. Notice how each year the condos and townhouses (pink portion of bar) is growing as a percentage of the entire bar.

The chart above shows that the 2007 residential market was the worst since 2000. But considering that 2000 was a good year, this is not all bad. We are just in a correction in a growing market!

When we look just at the Condos and Townhouses, we can see that 2007 was the third best year ever! Why? Most likely because these are the most affordable residences in the Tallahassee real estate market, and the demand for affordable housing in our area has not wavered as much as the above-median priced portion of our market.

So, when you real something about the Tallahassee real estate market, or the Florida real estate market, or even the national real estate market, check to see if the author is referring to single family homes alone, or the entire residential market.

As a reminder for those who subscribe to the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog by email, some embedded pictures and videos might not be appearing in your email and you might need to click the title header to go to your browser where all will be visible.

Keep checking out the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog every day for updates that include charts, graphs, and analysis of the Tallahassee real estate market.

If you like this Article then please subscribe to my blog through a full RSS feed. You will be able to stay informed about the happenings in the Tallahassee Real Estate Market. You can also subscribe to this blog and have it delivered by Email.

Joe Manausa is a real estate investor and the Broker and Co-Owner of Century 21 First Realty. He can be reached via e-mail through the Tallahassee Real Estate Website or catch his latest writings on the Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog , or by calling (850) 386-2001.

If you'd like to forward this post to someone you think might be interested, simply click on the "Share This" link and click "E-mail."
Share This

The final numbers are in for the Tallahassee Real Estate Market. 2007 has been completed and we can move forward to 2008! So, how do you think our market was in 2007? Down, certainly. Dead, … think again.

Overall, the Tallahassee (Leon County) residential real estate market was better than all the years prior to 2001 (with the exception of 1999). Leon County real estate sales were 4% better in 2007 than they were in 2000. I remember back in 2000, and we were thinking it was a fairly good, above-average market. This market correction was needed and is a normal part of the long-term real estate sales cycle.

New contruction sales (the residential category combines Single-Family homes, Condominiums, and Town Houses) had its fifth-best recorded year ever! With all the media stories preaching gloom and doom over the Tallahassee housing market, I think it is important to know the difference between a “crash” and a market correction.

Finally, residential resales were hurt the worst. I believe this is because the professional Sellers (builders and investors) knew to cut their losses and get out, whereas the discretionary Sellers (families) did not have a strong enough motivation to sell their homes. The ones that absolutely had to sell their homes priced them accordingly and sold them, the ones that did not just flooded the market with inventory that was not needed.

I will have more information regarding the 2007 Tallahassee Real Estate Market in my future blogs.

As a reminder for those who subscribe to the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog by email, some embedded pictures and videos might not be appearing in your email and you might need to click the title header to go to your browser where all will be visible.

Keep checking out the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog every day for updates that include charts, graphs, and analysis of the Tallahassee real estate market.

If you like this Article then please subscribe to my blog through a full RSS feed. You will be able to stay informed about the happenings in the Tallahassee Real Estate Market. You can also subscribe to this blog and have it delivered by Email.

Joe Manausa is a real estate investor and the Broker and Co-Owner of Century 21 First Realty. He can be reached via e-mail through the Tallahassee Real Estate Website or catch his latest writings on the Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog , or by calling (850) 386-2001.

If you'd like to forward this post to someone you think might be interested, simply click on the "Share This" link and click "E-mail."
Share This

The numbers are in for December and I thought I’d take a quick moment to give us a sneak-peak at what they are. I will cover the Tallahassee Real Estate Market Report for December in a future blog soon.In a year-over-year comparison with 2006, the Tallahassee real estate market was down about 28% for residential units (Single Family Homes, Condominiums, and Town Houses). This is no big surprise.Residential lot sales were down about 43% compared to 2006. Mobile home sales were up 1%, and the commercial market (not vacant land) was down about 18%.Average prices declined, but did not drop drastically as the doom-sayers predicted.

The only large decline was in lot prices, and it is too early to tell if actual prices were dropping or if the slowing of speculative building on the higher priced lots brought down the average. The Lot-Sales Trend chart is very busy.

Finally, the New Construction market in Tallahassee saw its toughest year in quite a while, but a turn-around appears to have started. New single-family permits started to trend higher a few months ago, and new construction sales have started to trend higher as well.

I will be conducting a much more detailed analysis of the 2007 Tallahassee Real Estate Market in a future blog.

As a reminder for those who subscribe to the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog by email, some embedded pictures and videos might not be appearing in your email and you might need to click the title header to go to your browser where all will be visible.

Keep checking out the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog every day for updates that include charts, graphs, and analysis of the Tallahassee real estate market.

If you like this Article then please subscribe to my blog through a full RSS feed. You will be able to stay informed about the happenings in the Tallahassee Real Estate Market. You can also subscribe to this blog and have it delivered by Email.

Joe Manausa is a real estate investor and the Broker and Co-Owner of Century 21 First Realty. He can be reached via e-mail through the Tallahassee Real Estate Website or catch his latest writings on the Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog , or by calling (850) 386-2001.

If you'd like to forward this post to someone you think might be interested, simply click on the "Share This" link and click "E-mail."
Share This

If you'd like to forward this post to someone you think might be interested, simply click on the "Share This" link and click "E-mail."
Share This

Happy New Year Everyone!

I have been so busy “closing out” 2007 that I haven’t been very active blogging for the past month or so. This is going to change….

I figured a great way to start 2008 is with some exciting news! One chart that I track every month regarding the Tallahassee Real Estate Market is created with information from the Tallahassee Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service (MLS). This chart shows current trends and actually is useful when trying to predict the near future.

The chart below is from information from all the counties in the MLS, and it shows a great new trend that seems to have started four months ago. The blue line shows the trend of monthly “newly pended (newly written but not closed) contracts,” while the red line shows the trend of monthly closed sales.

As you can see, we have been on a downward trend in homes sold ever-since the end of 2005. Many people have asked me when I think the Tallahassee Real Estate market will turnaround, and the answer that I have been giving is “it’s hard to say…” Well, we know that closed sales come from contracts that were written in the past, and this chart shows us that contract writing seems to be increasing in the MLS. Based upon this, we should hopefully see a turn in the closed trend sometime in this year. The key to this chart is that the turn-around could not begin without an upward trend in “Pend Trend.”

Remember, when tracking trends using a 12-month moving average as in the chart above, we are removing seasonality. This is truly a look at year-over-year sales on an ongoing basis.

So cross your fingers and hope that this apparent trend continues.

As a reminder for those who subscribe to the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog by email, some embedded pictures and videos might not be appearing in your email and you might need to click the title header to go to your browser where all will be visible.

Keep checking out the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog every day for updates that include charts, graphs, and analysis of the Tallahassee real estate market.

If you like this Article then please subscribe to my blog through a full RSS feed. You will be able to stay informed about the happenings in the Tallahassee Real Estate Market. You can also subscribe to this blog and have it delivered by Email.

Joe Manausa is a real estate investor and the Broker and Co-Owner of Century 21 First Realty. He can be reached via e-mail through the Tallahassee Real Estate Website or catch his latest writings on the Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog , or by calling (850) 386-2001.

If you'd like to forward this post to someone you think might be interested, simply click on the "Share This" link and click "E-mail."
Share This